Should I Buy Bitcoin Now?

With Bitcoin price In April 2025, breaking through $87,000, the market once again sparked a debate about whether it is the right time to get on board. Faced with volatile market and complex macro environment, investors need to make rational judgments based on multi-dimensional data such as fund flows, market sentiment, and technical indicators. This article starts with recent key data to provide reference for investors with different strategies.

ETF fund movements: long-term confidence remains unchanged, short-term fluctuations are controllable

Despite a small outflow of $13 million from the Bitcoin spot ETF last week (2025.04.14-04.20), the scale of this can be almost negligible. Since February this year, the trend of continuous net outflow of ETF funds has not been reversed. It is worth noting that the current correlation between ETF fund flows and price fluctuations is weakening, and the market is gradually entering a stock game stage. For ordinary investors, the stability of ETFs can serve as an anchor for long-term confidence, but short-term trading still needs to be vigilant against the volatility risks caused by macro policies.

Price oscillation range: technical signals after breaking through the previous high

Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated narrowly in the range of $82,000 to $86,000, until this morning when it broke through $87,000 and rose above the upper boundary of the box. From a technical perspective, if the price can hold above $87,000 and accompanied by increased trading volume, it may open up the potential to test the $90,000 level upwards; conversely, if the retracement confirmation fails, it may return to the oscillation channel. The current uncertainty in macroeconomic policies (such as the Fed’s interest rate path, geopolitical situations) remains a core factor constraining the unilateral development of the market. For short-term investors, it is important to pay attention to the effectiveness of the breakout; long-term holders can ignore short-term fluctuations and focus on the cyclical trend.

Market Sentiment Index: Contrarian Opportunities in the Panic Phase

Over the past week, the Bitcoin greed and fear index has continued to hover around 30, indicating that market sentiment is still in the fear stage. Historical data shows that when the index is below 40, it often corresponds to the medium to long-term bottom area. For example, at the beginning of 2023, the index dropped to 25, and Bitcoin subsequently rose by over 200% in the following six months. The current market’s cautious sentiment is mainly due to policy disturbances rather than deteriorating fundamentals. For value investors, the fear stage is precisely the window to gradually build positions, but position control is needed to deal with potential fluctuations.

AHR999 Index: A Guide to Long-Term Investing for Visionaries

According to the latest data today, the Bitcoin AHR999 index is 0.77, which is in the ‘suitable for dollar-cost averaging’ range (0.45-1.2). This index uates the deviation of Bitcoin price from the long-term trend line, and a value below 1 indicates that the price is relatively undervalued. Historical data shows that when the AHR999 is in the range of 0.45-1.2 and dollar-cost averaging is continued, the probability of profit holding for more than 3 years exceeds 90%. For investors who cannot accurately time the market, the current index level provides data support for staggered purchases, but strict investment discipline should be established to avoid emotional operations.

In the current market, investors can choose different strategies according to their risk preferences: Conservative: wait for a breakthrough of $90,000 and get on board after stabilizing on the right side; Steady: refer to the AHR999 index for weekly/monthly dollar-cost averaging to smooth out the holding cost; Aggressive: use panic sentiment to set up swing positions near the lower edge of the range (around $82,000). Regardless of the strategy, it is necessary to set a clear stop-loss level and reserve at least 30% cash to deal with black swan events.

BTC Future Outlook

Bitcoin is currently in a game period between macro policies and market sentiment. Although the short-term direction is unclear, the underlying logic for long-term improvement (halving cycle, institutional allocation increase, global payment network upgrade) has not fundamentally changed. For investors who believe in the future of cryptocurrency, a volatile market may be a gift of time.