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U.S. stocks closed on Monday, showing a divergent trend. The Dow initially closed up 0.28%, the S&P 500 rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Big tech stocks were mixed, with Tesla (TSLA.O) up 0.3%, Apple (AAPL.O) up 0.4% and Nvidia (NVDA.O) down 2%. From the perspective of Fed interest rate expectations, according to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 91.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.9%. By June, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 57.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 5.3%. Against this macro backdrop, the crypto market has come out of a volatile upward trend. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated around $95,000, while Ethereum remained hovering around $1,800. At the same time, the meme and AI artificial intelligence sectors remained strong, and the overall positive pattern remained unchanged.
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After a pullback in the overnight Bitcoin price, it rebounded again, still within the range of oscillation. This market situation makes the operational thinking relatively clear; both long and short sides have profit opportunities if they can grasp the range well. In the short term, the market rebounds again, and the pullback low is constantly raised, with distinct characteristics in the morning session. Yesterday, after the Bitcoin opened, it oscillated upward, with strong bullish momentum, reaching a high of 95000 USD. However, the bears then exerted pressure, causing the price to quickly fall, dipping to a low of 93400 USD. In the closing period, buying pressure increased, pushing Bitcoin to rebound and close above 95000 USD. Analyzing from the hourly level, the trading volume gradually shrank during the decline, indicating a slowdown in the downward momentum. At the same time, the candlestick pattern shows many long lower shadows, indicating there is certain support below and a technical rebound demand.
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The trend of Ethereum is basically synchronized with Bitcoin. In the early session, it followed market sentiment and surged to 1800 USD, then fell back under the pressure of bears, hitting a low of 1740 USD, and closing near 1790 USD in the end. On the daily level, Ethereum faced significant resistance around 1800 USD, with multiple attempts to break through being unsuccessful, indicating considerable pressure above. However, from the perspective of short-term indicators, the RSI has entered the oversold area and started to rebound, suggesting a demand for rebound repair in the short term. Currently, the technical chart of Ethereum shows a contraction in the Bollinger Bands, with prices operating in the upper-middle band range. Once the Bollinger Bands open up, Ethereum is expected to have a surge in upward space. Additionally, the 1-hour K-line chart currently shows 5 consecutive bullish bars followed by a bearish bar, forming a doji, which is a reversal signal. In the short term, a slight decline is expected, but the overall trend remains bullish. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on entering long positions on pullbacks to lower levels.