Bitcoin (BTC) prices are still in a value trough, US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) ignite interest rate cut expectations.

Source: Cointelegraph Original: "The price of Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a value depression, and the non-farm data ignites expectations for interest rate cuts"

Key Summary:

According to Fidelity analysis, the mid-term outlook for Bitcoin has entered the "optimistic" zone, with the institution pointing out that Bitcoin is showing a "undervalued" trend.

Fidelity adopts the 'Bitcoin Yardstick' ( Bitcoin Yardstick ) metric — a ratio derived by dividing Bitcoin's market capitalization by its hash rate. The lower this ratio, the more it indicates that Bitcoin is valued as "cheap" relative to the energy security of its network.

In the first quarter of 2025, the indicator remained between -1 and 3 standard deviations, cooling down from the overheating levels of the fourth quarter of 2024. The number of trading days above 2 standard deviations decreased from 22 days to 15 days, and there were no occurrences exceeding 3 standard deviations, indicating that the valuation pressure of Bitcoin relative to its network strength has significantly eased.

The investment institution pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in an "acceleration phase" — during this phase, it is not uncommon for prices to hit new historical highs, but it also warns of a potential "blow-off top".

Data shows that the proportion of illiquid supply has increased from 61.50% to 63.49%, while liquid supply has decreased by 4%, indicating that holders are increasingly inclined toward long-term holding. Currently, the illiquid supply shock ratio is still 16% lower than the peak in 2017.

According to this perspective, Cointelegraph reported that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF recorded a massive inflow of $970.9 million on April 28, 2025, setting the second-largest single-day inflow record since the product's launch in January 2024. Since April 22, IBIT has accumulated over $4.5 billion in net inflows, which sharply contrasts with the market trend of competitors like Fidelity FBTC and ARKB experiencing outflows. Currently, IBIT's assets under management have surpassed $54 billion, capturing 51% of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.

JOLTS data boosts Bitcoin trend

The March 2025 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report ( JOLTS ) shows that the number of job vacancies plummeted from 7.57 million in February to 7.19 million, below the market expectation of 7.48 million. The lower-than-expected JOLTS data indicates a cooling labor market, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which will weaken the dollar and boost risk assets such as Bitcoin.

On the contrary, if the data exceeds expectations, it indicates a strong economy, which may delay interest rate cuts and suppress cryptocurrency asset prices. As the scale of federal layoffs reaches the highest level since 2020, market expectations are slightly leaning towards a dovish stance.

Economist and Bitcoin commentator Alex Kruger pointed out that JOLTS data is a short-term positive for Bitcoin. He believes that Bitcoin, as a "hybrid of risk assets and gold," is expected to benefit from the easing of trade tensions after Trump's 90-day tariff suspension period (ending on July 8).

The analyst posted on platform X predicting that market attention may shift towards the earnings reports of companies like Caterpillar and the performance of tech stocks, while closely monitoring next week's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee ( FOMC ) meeting—Powell may signal an early rate cut.

Kruger warned that the third quarter may see an economic slowdown leading to market volatility, but he also emphasized that Bitcoin's unique risk-reward ratio will outperform the overbought altcoins.

Related recommendations: According to reports, the Senate Majority Leader is expected to vote on the stablecoin bill before May 26.