#美联储会议纪要# In the latest released minutes of The Federal Reserve (FED) meeting, the expectations for the policy path have been slightly adjusted.

The data shows that the path of interest rates based on the implied price of options has shifted slightly, suggesting that there could be one or two rate cuts of 25 basis points each time during the year. Although this trend is not much different from what was expected at the FOMC meeting in March, it seems that players have priced in the possibility of up to three rate cuts, reflecting that the market is becoming more sensitive to the downward trend of policy rates. Despite the widening divergence in market expectations, the minutes highlighted the high priority on the path of inflation.
Most officials believe that the duration of elevated inflation may exceed previous estimates, and the risk of rising unemployment cannot be ignored. In stark contrast to the dynamic macroeconomic policies, the attitude toward crypto assets in the U.S. political sphere is undergoing a subtle change.
Vice President Vance's speech at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference has sparked heated discussions in the industry. He not only stated that he holds Bitcoin but also pointed out that nearly 50 million Americans currently own it, predicting that this number will double in the short term.
More importantly, he sees Bitcoin as an important tool to combat inflation and hedge against policy mistakes in Washington, emphasizing its potential in national strategy.
Wans pointed out that Bitcoin will be one of the strategic national assets of the United States in the coming decades, and criticized the current government's regulatory stance, calling for the Bitcoin community to strengthen political participation in order to avoid missing the window for policy change.
He also revealed that Trump has pushed for the creation of a bitcoin reserve mechanism with the assistance of AI expert David Sacks, encouraging the tech community to include crypto assets in the framework of future AI policies. At the same time, regulators are signaling a shift to neutrality. The U.S. Department of Labor recently revoked the 2022 guidance that 401(k) accounts should not be allocated crypto assets, paving the way for financial giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity to include Bitcoin products in their pension portfolios. While this does not mean that players are explicitly encouraged to allocate BTC, it has largely eliminated political resistance, and the market interprets it as structurally positive.
ETF data: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 3,974 coins yesterday, valued at $433 million; the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of 31,900 coins yesterday, valued at $84.9 million;
From the market structure perspective, the support zone between $93,000 and $98,000 remains solid, and the stability of positions above $100,000 is good, with no signs of large-scale selling or panic.
Although the short-term turnover rate has slightly decreased, it is more driven by short-term players, while early holders tend to be more wait-and-see.
Overall, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase in the short term, and there is a possibility of testing the 5-week moving average this week. However, it still has upward momentum in the medium to long term, and after the adjustment ends, it may usher in a new round of upward breakout.