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According to the latest financial market data, investors' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting in September have shown slight changes. Current market predictions indicate that the possibility of the Fed dropping the Benchmark Interest Rate by 25 basis points next month has slightly decreased, but it remains at a relatively high level.
Specifically, the FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) shows that, as of the latest statistical time, the market believes the probability of the Fed lowering the interest rate by 25 basis points at the September meeting has slightly dropped from the previous high to 92.1%. Meanwhile, the likelihood of keeping the current interest rate level unchanged has correspondingly risen to 7.9%.
This slight shift in expectations reflects a subtle adjustment by investors in their judgment of the direction of monetary policy after assessing the latest economic data and recent statements from Fed officials. Although a drop in interest rates remains the mainstream expectation in the market, this nuanced change also highlights the complexity and uncertainty of the economic environment.
As the September Fed policy meeting approaches, market participants will continue to closely monitor changes in various economic indicators and the public speeches of Fed officials in search of more clues about the future direction of interest rates. Regardless of the final decision, these shifts in expectations reflect the financial market's sensitive response to economic conditions and ongoing attention to Fed policy.