#美联储降息预期# Reflecting on the past few rounds of interest rate cuts, I can always feel the fluctuation of market sentiment. The "explosive" performance of this inflation data inevitably reminds one of the "policy mistake" at the end of 2018. At that time, under inflationary pressure, the Fed insisted on raising interest rates, which resulted in a big dump in the market. However, the current situation seems to be more complicated.

On one hand, the July PPI and CPI data show that inflationary pressures still exist, especially with the surge in service sector inflation. On the other hand, there are some signs of weakness in the labor market. This "stagflation" pattern makes policy-making even more challenging.

Historically, the Fed tends to be cautious when balancing inflation and growth. A 92.5% expectation for interest rate cuts may be a bit optimistic. However, if they really decide to hold off, the market's reaction could be quite severe. After all, the market has been preparing for interest rate cuts over the past few months.

This reminds me of the interest rate cut cycle after the tech bubble burst in 2001. At that time, the market also had high expectations for the rate cut, but the Fed's actions were slower than expected. However, in the end, they still had to cut rates significantly to respond to the economic downward pressure.

At present, it is still difficult to say the outcome of the September meeting. However, in any case, market fluctuations may intensify in the near future. Investors need to be well-prepared for various scenarios and also be wary of the risks brought by emotional decision-making. After all, history always repeats itself, but the details are different each time.