On the eve of Powell's speech: The struggle for ETH chips in the "panic and layout" game of the crypto market.

With only 1 day left until Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on August 22 at 22:00, the crypto market is caught in an intense game of "panic and positioning": the sudden on-chain event of "910,000 ETH unlocking" has triggered a sell-off, while institutions are going against the trend to scoop up 510,000 ETH. What truths are hidden in this battle for chips on the eve of policy announcement?

1. "910,000 coins unlocked" triggered panic: possibly a "selling pressure illusion" created by the market makers.

The on-chain data of "910,000 ETH being unstaked" has caused panic in the market, but the core truth behind this phenomenon has been deliberately obscured:

- Unwinding does not equal selling: Currently, on-chain lending rates have soared to 18%, reaching a peak for the year. Holders unwinding their positions are doing so to reduce the risk of leveraged liquidation, which is a form of passive deleveraging, not active dumping. In reality, the actual selling pressure is less than 30% of the apparent figures.
- The intention of the dealers to amplify panic is obvious: they took advantage of retail investors' concerns about policy uncertainty, creating a sell-off 36 hours before Powell's speech, with the aim of harvesting chips at a low price.

2. Institutions are buying 510,000 pieces against the trend: betting on "Powell's dovish card"

While retail investors are swayed by panic, institutions have already entered the "policy pre-positioning" mode:

- BMNR crazily bought 370,000 ETH within a week, with an average daily purchase of 53,000, setting a historical record for accumulation before the Jackson Hole meeting;
- SBET synchronously bought 140,000 pieces, with two institutions purchasing a total of 510,000 pieces within 7 days, averaging 73,000 pieces per day.

The actions of institutions with real capital point to a core logic: betting that Powell will release dovish signals. Once the Federal Reserve hints at "interest rate cut expectations," US dollar liquidity will flood into the market, and ETH, as the "liquidity magnet" of the crypto market, breaking through 4400 USD may just be the beginning.

III. Jackson Hole Annual Meeting: The Battle for ETH's Liquidity Life and Death

As the annual core policy briefing of the Federal Reserve, Powell's statements will determine the short-term direction of ETH:

- If the hawkish stance continues: a rebound may follow after the negative news is fully priced in.
If Powell emphasizes that "persistent inflation requires continued interest rate hikes," the market may experience a brief panic, but ETH has already priced in the interest rate hike expectations, having fallen over 80% previously, leaving limited downside potential, which may instead trigger a rebound after the "bad news is fully priced in."
- If it turns dovish: a historical surge may be replicated
If Powell hints at "slowing down interest rate hikes or discussing rate cuts", the floodgates of dollar liquidity will be opened. Looking back at 2023, after Powell released dovish statements, ETH surged by 42% within 72 hours. This time, institutions are laying out their positions 3 days in advance, replicating this historical logic.

IV. Current Stage Warning: Getting off means giving up "policy dividends".

In the three major stages of a bull market, ETH is currently in the second stage of "growing amidst doubts": the market makers are using "unpledging" to shake off weak hands, institutions are taking advantage of policy expectations to buy the dip, and the "policy bomb" on August 22 will become a key turning point.

Choosing to exit at this time is equivalent to handing over the chips to institutions before the policy benefits are released. Historical experience shows that when the central bank's favorable policies are implemented, the funds that were positioned earlier often achieve the greatest increase.

Finally, it needs to be reminded that the unlocking data is just a smokescreen of panic; the institutional purchase of 510,000 pieces is the clear signal, and Powell's statement will determine the direction of liquidity. There are only 2 days left until the policy window; hold on to your chips and wait for the market to give the final answer. #加密市场反弹#